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Macron wins French election; Euro breathes a (small) sigh of relief

By HiFX   /     May 08, 2017  /     Market Updates  /     , , , , , , ,

Emmanuel Macron has emerged triumphant after one of the most closely fought French presidential elections ever. The official result shows that Macron beat his far right opponent, Marine Le Pen, by 66.06% to 33.94%. At 39, he now becomes the country’s youngest president.

Euro stable after ‘Frexit’ risk averted

After weeks of political uncertainty in France, this emphatic endorsement for Macron’s centrist policies means the Euro, and the EU, can breathe a sigh of relief. Had Marine Le Pen won the presidential race, a French exit from the EU would have been a real possibility. The wider economic repercussions of ‘Frexit’ would have been much greater than with Brexit as it would mean France leaving the Eurozone, which could have potentially destabilised the entire EU project.

Macron’s win, therefore, is good news for supporters of the Euro and European integration. As a result, the Euro rallied in early Asia-Pacific trading on Monday. However, any gains in the Euro appear to be short-lived as the markets had already factored in a Macron win following his successful performance in Wednesday’s television debate. At the time of writing, the Euro is valued at £0.8447 (up 0.30%) and $1.0963 (down 0.34%).*

Meanwhile, Le Pen is claiming that her party is now the main opposition force in the country and appears to be considering how she can broaden her party’s appeal for the next elections in 2022.

What will a Macron win mean for France’s economy?

The markets will be hoping Macron’s pro-business campaigning rhetoric will translate into energising policies for the sluggish French economy. Investors who have been deterred by the previous president’s socialist administration are likely to be more enamoured by Macron’s more business-friendly approach.

Once Macron is in office, analysts will be watching to see if he can wield sufficient power to implement his policies. His difficulty lies in the fact that he does not have a well-established party around him.

Macron was part of the outgoing Socialist government of President François Hollande. He left in August 2016 to form his new movement, En Marche!, describing it as neither left wing nor right wing.

Without a solid party base, Macron’s biggest challenge may simply be being able to govern effectively. With no party representation in parliament, he is effectively starting from scratch. This was part of his appeal to the French voters, so he may use it to his advantage by bringing in non-politicians from the business world and civic society. The first big hurdle in putting together a governing team will be next month’s parliamentary elections.

At HiFX, we continually monitor the markets to help you avoid losing out as a result of financial fluctuations caused by political upheaval. Whatever happens following Macron’s victory, we could help you to save time and money on your international money transfers by keeping fuss and fees to an absolute minimum.

To discuss your situation in more detail, please contact us.

 

*These figures are based on interbank rates, correct 02/05/2017. The interbank rate is the rate at which banks and brokers buy and sell money to each other. Private individuals and small to medium sized businesses cannot access these rates. They are therefore provided for indicative purposes only. For a quote, please contact us.

 

The details expressed in this transmission and accompanying documents are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. HiFX Europe Limited accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the above information. HiFX Europe Limited is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2009, registration 462444, for the provision of payment services. HiFX Europe Limited is also a registered MSB with HM Revenue & Customs. Registration number: 12131222. HiFX is a limited company registered in England and Wales. Registered number: 3517451. Registered office: Maxis 1, Western Road, Bracknell, Berkshire, RG12 1RT.

 

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