UK Data
- Monday 9.30am Mortgage Approvals for September. Previous 109.0k
- Monday 9.30am Net Consumer Credit for September. Previous 1.0bn
- Wednesday 7.00am Nationwide House Prices for October. Previous 9.0% y/y
- Thursday Halifax House Prices for October. Previous 10.7% y/y
- Thursday 9.30am CIPS Manufacturing PMI for October. Previous 55.1% bal
- Thursday 11.00am CBI Distributive Trade Report for October. Previous 12.0 survey
The data calendar was a little on the thin side last week with only CBI Industrial Trends (-6) and BBA Mortgage Approvals (52k) worthy of any note. However the key mover for GBP came on Friday when Land Registry numbers showed that UK House Price growth continues to wane (down to 8.7% y/y from 9.4% y/y previously). This weighed heavily on sterling, particularly against the euro. This week the focus will remain on the Housing Sector with a raft of data out in this arena together with Consumer Credit for any indication as to the likelihood of a rate cut from the MPC in the months ahead.
US Data
- Tuesday 2.00pm Consumer Confidence for October. Previous 99.8 index
- Wednesday 12.15pm ADP Employment Survey for October. Previous 60k
- Wednesday 12.30pm Core PCE Price Index for Q3. Previous 1.4% q/q annualised
- Wednesday 12.30pm GDP Annualised for Q3. Previous 3.8% q/q annualised
- Wednesday 2.00pm Chicago PMI for October. Previous 54.2 index
- Wednesday 7.15pm FOMC Interest Rate Decision
- Thursday 2.00pm Pending Home Sales for September. Previous -6.5% m/m
- Friday 12.30pm Non-farm Payrolls for October. Previous 110k
- Friday 12.30pm Unemployment Rate for October. Previous 4.7%
The USD remained under pressure last week after another series of disappointing data from the US. Of particular note were, Existing Home Sales came in at 5.04 million units, the lowest level since records began in 1999 and University of Michigan Sentiment hit a 17 month low at 80.9. Another new high in the €/$ rate was posted Friday close to 1.4400. This week the calendar is packed with data and an eagerly awaited interest rate decision Wednesday evening. Despite inflationary concerns, the market may well view the weak housing data as a clear sign that the Fed will need to cut interest rates again. On Friday attention will turn to the labour market with the release of the Non-Farm payroll data.
Euro Data
- Wednesday 10.00am Eurozone Unemployment for September. Previous 6.9%
- Wednesday 10.00am Flash HICP for October. Previous 2.1% y/y
- Friday 9.00am Manufacturing PMI (F) for October. Previous 53.2 index
Despite a benign series of releases last week, the euro was stronger across the board, posting another all time high against the USD close to 1.4400 and trading above 70p (below 1.4285) against sterling on Friday.This week is likely to offer little to surprise the market in terms of releases and the focus is likely to remain on the UK and the US.
Interest rate outlook
| Country |
Current rate |
Last change |
Date of change |
Next meeting |
| UK (MPC) |
5.75% |
+25bps |
05/07/07 |
8th November |
| US (FED) |
4.75% |
-50bps |
18/09/06 |
31st October |
| EU (ECB) |
4.00% |
+25bps |
06/06/07 |
8th November |