• Weekly briefings
• Archive

UK Data

• Monday - Market Holiday – Summer Bank Holiday
• Thursday 7.00am Nationwide House Price Index for August previous 9.9%y/y
• Thursday 9.30am Mortgage Approvals for July previous 114.0k
• Thursday 9.30am Net Consumer Credit for July previous £0.9bn
• Thursday 11.00am CBI Distributive Trades Survey for August previous 18.0%bal

The main highlight on a sparse data calendar last week, was the CBI Industrial Trends Survey which showed its strongest reading since May 1995 (+9 vs. expectations of -3). Within the survey, the forward looking ‘expectations’ indicators were also up with the pricing component showing industry experts are confident about being able to raise prices in the months ahead. This will be of particular interest to the Bank of England who are constantly battling to keep inflationary pressures under control. The only other data release was the second estimate for Q2 GDP which fell in line with the first estimate at 3.0%y/y. This week, the focus returns to the UK housing sector and retail sales figures where the market will be looking to gauge the impact of the recent rate hikes on the UK consumer. 

US Data

• Tuesday 3.00pm Consumer Confidence for August previous 112.6
• Tuesday 7.00pm Fed release minutes from prior (7th Aug) meeting
• Thursday 1.30pm Core PCE Price Index for Q2 previous 1.4%q/q
• Thursday 1.30pm GDP (Annualised) for Q2 previous 3.4%q/q

In the absence of any key data last week, the focus was once again on the equity markets which showed signs of stabilising after the exaggerated volatility in recent weeks. This resulted in a renewed risk appetite in the currency markets and consequently, the Dollar was left trading on the back foot towards the end of the week. This was despite both durable goods orders (5.9%m/m) and new home sales (874k) coming out above expectations on Friday. This week, the market will focus on the release of the Fed minutes from their prior meeting and the Core PCE Price Index to gauge whether or not the Fed will be able to cut rates in order to help stimulate the economy.

Euro Zone Data

• Tuesday 9.00am German IFO Survey for August previous 106.4
• Thursday 9.00am EU Retail PMI for August previous 46.2
• Friday 10.00am EU Unemployment for July previous 6.9%
• Friday 10.00am Flash HICP Inflation for August previous 1.8%y/y
• Friday 10.00am EU Consumer Sentiment for August previous -2.0 bal

Last week saw a disappointing German ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey (-6.9) however this was offset by the European Trade Balance (+€7.8bn) which was far better than expected. The only other data release of any note was EU Industrial New Orders (+4.4%m/m) which exceeded expectations echoing the positive industry sentiment seen in the UK.  This week, the main highlight will be Friday’s HICP data where the market will be looking to gauge whether inflationary pressures will force the ECB to tighten further in the months ahead.

Interest rate outlook