• Weekly briefings
• Archive

UK Data 

• Monday 7.00am Nationwide House Prices for November. Previous 9.7% y/y
• Thursday 9.30am Mortgage Approvals for October. Previous 102.0k
• Thursday 9.30am Net Consumer Credit for October. Previous 1.4bn
• Thursday 11.00am CBI Distributive Trends Report for Q3. Previous 10.0 survey
• Friday 10.30am Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey. Previous -8.0% bal

Sterling remained under pressure last week after another round of poor housing data with house price growth continuing to fall (Rightmove House Prices came in at 7.9% y/y from 10.4% y/y previously) and mortgage applications down. Furthermore, the minutes from the previous MPC meeting showed that two members voted to cut rates by 25 basis points. Following on from warnings from Mervyn King about poor growth in 2008, this gave the market further cause to expect at least two UK rate cuts within the next twelve months. This week attention will remain firmly on the housing sector and consumer confidence for clues as to whether the MPC are likely to cut in December or wait until the new year.

US Data

• Tuesday 3.00pm Consumer Confidence for November. Previous 95.6 index
• Wednesday 1.30pm Durable Goods Orders for October. Previous -1.7 %m/m
• Wednesday 3.00pm Existing Home Sales for October. Previous 5.0mn
• Wednesday 7.00pm Fed Beige Book
• Thursday 1.30pm Core PCE Price Index for Q3. Previous 1.8% q/q ann
• Thursday 1.30pm GDP Annualized for Q3. Previous 3.9% q/q ann
• Thursday 1.30pm Initial Claims for we 24/11/07. Previous 330.0k
• Thursday 3.00pm New Home Sales for October. Previous 770.0k

In tandem with the situation in the UK, last week saw another raft of weak housing data from the US. In particular, Building Permits came in below 1.2 million – the lowest level since July 1993. Pessimism also extends to the business community with the University if Michigan Sentiment Survey coming in at a two year low of 76. This saw the USD weaken to new record levels against both the EUR (1.4966) and CHF (1.0896). In an interesting twist, whilst the minutes from the previous Fed meeting were expected to show that the October rate cut was likely to be followed by another in the near future the reality however, was that the decision to cut was not unanimous and the feeling of the Fed is that the risks to the economy going forward are finely balanced. A busy data calendar this week will see the market focusing on Consumer Confidence, GDP and additional housing data.

Euro Data 

• Thursday 9.00am Bloomberg Retail PMI for November. Previous 47.9 index

Last week the focus on the data front from the EU was Industrial New Orders which came out at a disappointing -1.6% m/m and shows how the strength of the Euro is starting to adversely affect the Eurozone economy. However, the single currency held its ground and posted another record high against the USD at 1.4966 on Friday morning before retreating slightly later in the day. This week there is virtually no data from the EU and the markets are likely to remain focused on equities and data from the UK and the US.

Interest rate outlook