UK Data
- Tuesday 9.30am CPI for August previous 1.9% y/y
- Wednesday 9.30am BoE release minutes for 5-6th Sept meeting
- Thursday 9.30am Retail Sales for August previous 0.7% m/m.
- Thursday 9.30am BSA Mortgage Approvals for August previous 3.59 million
- Thursday 11am CBI Industrial Trends for September previous +9%
The data releases start immediately at 1 minute past midnight Monday morning with the Rightmove House Price Survey, with expectations for 12.5% increase y/y against 12.8% previously. However with the continuing turmoil in the credit markets (as highlighted by Northern Rock’s appeal to the BoE for emergency funding last Friday), the key focus will be on the release of the BoE minutes from their meeting earlier this month and some indication on what their deliberations were on the credit crunch and the outlook for UK interest rates.
US Data
- Monday 1.30pmEmpireState Survey for September previous 25.1
- Tuesday 1.30pm PPI for August previous 0.6% m/m
- Tuesday 7.15pm Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
- Wednesday 1.30pm CPI for August previous 0.1% m/m
- Wednesday 1.30pm Housing Starts for August previous 1380k
- Wednesday 1.30pm Building Permits for August previous 1390k
The only data of note last week was the US Trade Data, which showed a slight fall to $59.25bn from an upwardly revised $59.43bn the previous month. This week there is important data in the form of CPI/ PPI and the first details of the state of the US housing market in September. But all the data releases are over shadowed by the Fed interest rate decision on Tuesday evening. The markets are pricing in the possibility of a 50 basis point cut (although a 25 bp cut is more likely), as the Fed try to combat the problems in the housing market feeding through into the wider economy. This rate decision really is crucial for all markets.
Euro Zone Data
- Tuesday 10.00am EU ZEW Survey for September previous -6.1
- Friday 9.00am EU Services PMI survey for September previous 57.9
The Eurozone inflation data for August dipped to 1.7% y/y from 1.8% previously. Despite the slow fall in the inflation rate it is still widely believed the ECB would still like to raise rates when market conditions allow. There is an ECB council meeting on Thursday, but it is a non-rate setting meeting, but they will issue a press release. This week also sees the release of the ZEW survey on Tuesday which will give the first look at sentiment in September.
Interest rate outlook
| Country |
Current rate |
Last change |
Date of change |
Next meeting |
| UK (MPC) |
5.75% |
+25bps |
05/07/07 |
4th October |
| US (FED) |
5.25% |
+25bps |
29/06/06 |
18th September |
| EU (ECB) |
4.00% |
+25bps |
06/06/07 |
4th October |