UK Data
- Monday 9.30am PPI Input for November. Previous 1.8% m/m
- Monday 9.30am PPI Output for November. Previous 3.8% y/y
- Tuesday 9.30am UK Trade Balance for October. Previous -7.8bn
- Wednesday 9.30am Average Earnings for October. Previous 4.1 3m avg.
- Thursday 00.01am RICS Housing Survey for November. Previous -22.2 3m% bal
- Thursday 11.00am CBI Industrial trends for December. Previous 8.0% bal
Sterling plunged last week on the back of news that Halifax, the UK’s biggest mortgage lender, reported that average house prices fell by 1.1% in November, while PMI services activity fell to 51.9 index; its weakest levels for 4 ½ years. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.5%, had little effect on Sterling, as the market had effectively priced in a rate cut. Signs of slowing growth and moderating spending were largely in line with expectations from the November quarterly inflation report. However, continued deterioration in the financial markets and tightening of credit supply to households and businesses poses greater downside risk to output and inflation going forward. The market anticipates further pipeline inflation data going into this week, coupled with comprehensive housing data from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors.
US Data
- Monday 3.00pm Pending Home Sales for October. Previous 0.2% m/m
- Tuesday 7.15pm FOMC Interest Rate Announcement
- Wednesday 1.30pm US Trade Data for October. Previous -$56.5bn
- Thursday 1.30pm Initial Claims to 8th Dec. Previous 338k
- Thursday 1.30pm PPI for November. Previous 0.1% m/m
- Thursday 1.30pm Retail Sales for November. Previous 0.2% m/m
- Friday 1.30pm CPI for November. Previous 0.3% m/m
The US Dollar came under continuing pressure last week from a raft of poor economic data that left the outlook for the US economy under attack. US manufacturing remained close to stagnating in November as it fell for the fifth consecutive month, while the services sector faired little better as activity slipped in November to its weakest levels since March. Non-Farm Payrolls came in slightly above market expectations, however the data was largely ignored by the market and the national unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.7%. The US housing slump coupled with the ongoing credit squeeze leaves the door widely open for a cut in US interest rates this week, as the overall risks to the wider economy remain.
Euro Data
-
Tuesday 10.00am German ZEW Survey for December. Previous -32.5 index
-
Wednesday 10.00am Industrial Production for October. Previous -0.7% m/m
-
Thursday 10.00am Labour Cost Index for Q3. Previous 2.5% y/y
-
Friday 10.00am HICP for November. Previous 2.6% y/y
Last weeks data was overshadowed by the ECB’s interest rate decision on Thursday; where the committee voted to keep rates on hold at 4.0%. Trichet, the ECB President, emphasised the importance of avoiding the longer term inflationary pressures while encouraging growth after fears that it may be stagnating. Eurozone inflation stands at 3.0%; a six and a half year high, however
it was largely anticipated that the authorities would justify current monetary stability, with the claim that price pressures would soon pass their peak moving into 2008.
Next week the market will look towards the ZEW survey for an insight into economic sentiment in Europe’s largest economy and Friday’s inflation data for confirmation that inflationary pressures are likely to prevent the ECB from cutting interest rates.
Interest rate outlook
| Country |
Current rate |
Last change |
Date of change |
Next meeting |
| UK (MPC) |
5.75% |
+25bps |
05/07/07 |
6th December |
| US (FED) |
4.50% |
-25bps |
31/10/07 |
11th December |
| EU (ECB) |
4.00% |
+25bps |
06/06/07 |
6th December |