• Weekly briefings
• Archive

UK Data

• Wednesday 7.00am Nationwide House Prices for February previous 9.3% bal
• Thursday 8.00am Halifax House Prices for February previous 1.3%m/m
• Thursday 9.30am CIPS Manufacturing PMI for February previous 52.8% bal
• Thursday 9.30am Mortgage Approvals for January previous 113k
• Thursday 9.30am Net Consumer Credit for January previous £1.0bn
• Thursday 11.00am CBI Distributive Trades Survey for February previous 30.0% bal

The main highlight on last week’s calendar was the release of the Bank of England minutes, which revealed a 7-2 vote in favour of leaving rates on hold at 5.25% (Sentence and Besley both voted for a hike). The overall tone was not as hawkish as the market had been looking for indicating that the committee were likely to take a ‘wait and see’ approach before further tightening is likely to be seen. Also of interest was CBI Industrial Trends (+4.0) which showed its highest figure since June 1995 and GDP (+3.0%y/y) which was the fastest rise since Q3 2004. This week, attention returns to the housing sector where the market will be looking for any further signs of a slowdown in the wake of January’s rate hike.

US Data 

• Tuesday 1.30pm Durable Goods Orders for January previous 3.1%m/m
• Tuesday 3.00pm Consumer Confidence for February previous 110.3
• Tuesday 3.00pm Existing Home Sales for January previous 6.2mn
• Wednesday 2.45pm Chicago PMI for February previous 48.8
• Wednesday 3.00pm New Home Sales for January previous 1.1mn
• Thursday 3.00pm ISM Manufacturing data for February previous 49.3

The principle highlight on last week’s data calendar was January’s CPI figures (+0.2%m/m, 2.1%y/y) which marginally exceeded expectations. The minutes from the FED’s prior meeting maintained a slightly hawkish tone, focusing on inflation and highlighting risks on both sides to growth, however, the outlook for US interest rates is still neutral (with a slight tightening bias). This week, the market will focus on housing data for confirmation that the housing market is indeed ‘bottoming out’ which in turn, may lead to increased consumer confidence. 

Euro Data 

• Tuesday 9.00am EU Retail PMI for February previous 47.9
• Wednesday 10.00am EU Unemployment for January previous 7.5%
• Wednesday 10.00am EU HICP for January previous 1.9%y/y
• Thursday 9.30am EU Manufacturing PMI for February previous 55.5

Last week saw EU industrial new orders (2.8%m/m) exceed expectations although the impact upon the market was minimal with a 25bps hike widely expected when the ECB meet next week. This week, the market will look towards EU Retail PMI and Manufacturing PMI for confirmation of a robust European economy and Wednesday’s inflation data for any signs that inflationary pressures may result in further tightening from the ECB.

Interest rate outlook