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UK Data

• Monday 9.30am CIPS Services PMI for February previous 59.2
• Thursday 12.00pm BoE MPC Interest Rate Decision
• Friday 9.30am Industrial Production for January previous -0.1%m/m
• Friday 9.30am Manufacturing Production for January previous 0.2%m/m

Last week really kicked off on Tuesday with the Chinese stock market falling 9% and sending shivers around the globe. This led to a rise in risk aversion and GBP along with other high yielding currencies suffered. In terms of data of note the quarterly balance from the CBI measuring retailer’s price expectations rose to its highest level since 1999. This will be one of the concerns for the BoE MPC when they sit down to decide on interest rates. Given last week’s reminder how fragile the global economy can be, it is expected for the MPC to remain on hold, however the bias still remains for further tightening.

US Data 

• Monday 3.00pm ISM Non Manufacturing Survey for February previous 59.0
• Wednesday 1.15pm ADP Employment Survey for February previous 126k
• Wednesday 7.00pm Fed Release Beige Book
• Friday 1.30pm Trade Balance for January previous -$61.2
• Friday 1.30pm Unemployment Rate for February previous 4.6%
• Friday 1.30pm Non Farm Payrolls for February previous 111.0k

Last week saw the US stock market react to a fall in Chinese stocks, a sign of things to come. In fact the Dow at one stage fell over 500 points and experienced the biggest fall since September 11^th. Although the main catalyst for all this was China, a 7.8% fall in Durable Goods didn’t help matters. This week should prove quite key in giving an up-to-date health check on the US economy with the Beige Book, trade data and the all important non farms. 

Euro Data 

• Monday 9.00am EU Services PMI for February previous 57.9
• Tuesday 10.00am EU GDP for Q4 previous 0.3%m/m
• Thursday 12.45pm ECB Interest Rate announcement followed by press conference at 1.30pm

Last week the EU inflation came in at 1.8%, however the ECB are still widely expected to raise rates to 3.75% as highlighted by Trichet at the previous meeting’s press conference. Given the recent sell-off in global stock markets it will be interesting to see how the European stock markets will react.

Interest rate outlook