• Weekly briefings
• Archive

UK Data
 

•  Tuesday 8.00am Halifax House Prices for May previous 1.1%m/m
• Tuesday 9.30am CIPS Services PMI for May previous 57.2
• Thursday 12.00pm BoE MPC Interest Rate Decision
• Friday 9.30am Manufacturing Production for April previous 0.6%m/m
• Friday 9.30am Industrial Production for April previous 0.3%m/m

Last week saw a mixed bag of UK housing data beginning with Nationwide House Prices which showed prices rising at +0.5%m/m, +10.3%y/y. However, mortgage approvals (107k) and mortgage lending (£8.9bn) both dropped sharply indicating that the four rate rises from the MPC in the past ten months are starting to bite. The same could be said for retail sales where the CBI distributive trades survey dropped sharply to +31 from +44 previously. This week, the market will focus on the Bank of England interest rate announcement where we expect rates to be left unchanged at 5.50% following the hike last month.   

US Data
 

• Tuesday 3.00pm ISM Non Manufacturing Survey for May previous 56.0
• Friday 1.30pm Trade Balance for April previous -$63.9bn

The main event last week was the employment report where the headline Non Farm Payrolls showed a strong 157k new jobs created outside the agricultural sector. The unemployment rate came out in line with expectations at 4.5% however the data had relatively little impact on the Dollar. The other highlight was the release of the Fed minutes which indicated that the committee are still more concerned about inflation that they are about below par growth. This was followed by the second estimate for Q1 GDP which was revised down to +0.6%q/q. This week is relatively scant on the data front with the main highlight being the trade balance where the market will be looking for any signs that the weaker Dollar has helped US exports.

Euro Data     

• Monday 10.00am EU PPI for April previous 2.7%y/y
• Tuesday 9.00am EU Services PMI for April previous 57.0
• Tuesday 10.00am EU Retail Trade for April previous 0.5%m/m
• Wednesday 12.45pm ECB Interest Rate announcement followed by News Conference at 1.30pm

Last week saw a mixed bag of data from Europe, retail PMI (48.4) showed its first decline in three months however this was offset by unemployment which fell to 7.1%. GDP (0.6%m/m, 3.0%y/y) and HICP (1.9%y/y) both came out in line with expectations and consequently, the ECB are still expected to raise rates to 4.0% when they meet on Wednesday. The key however, is likely to be in Trichet’s accompanying statement where the market will be looking for any indications as to whether further tightening is on the cards for the months ahead.

Interest rate outlook