• Weekly briefings
• Archive

UK Data
 

• Tuesday 8.00am Halifax House Prices for April previous 1.0%m/m
• Tuesday 11.00am CBI Distributive Trades Survey for April previous 32.0%balance
• Wednesday 9.30am CIPS Manufacturing PMI for April previous 54.4
• Wednesday 9.30am Mortgage Approvals for March previous 119k
• Wednesday 9.30am Net Consumer Credit for March previous £0.9bn

Last week saw the first estimate for Q1 GDP (0.7%q/q, 2.8%y/y) highlight a healthy UK economy despite the recent rate hikes from the MPC. There were also signs of a robust UK housing market with the Nationwide House Price Survey (10.2%y/y) exceeding expectations. The only slight negative for Sterling was the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (2.0 against 8.0 in March) however the report indicated that manufacturers are still looking to push prices up which in turn, is likely to keep the MPC on their toes. This week, the market will once again focus on the UK housing market and also CBI distributive trades for continued signs of positive activity on the high street.  

US Data

• Monday 2.45pm Chicago PMI for April previous 61.7
• Tuesday 3.00pm ISM Manufacturing Survey for April previous 50.9
• Wednesday 1.15pm ADP Employment Survey for April previous 106k
• Thursday 3.00pm ISM Non Manufacturing Survey for April previous 52.4
• Friday 1.30pm Non Farm Payrolls for April previous 180k
• Friday 1.30pm Unemployment for April previous 4.4%

Disappointing housing data weighed heavily on the Dollar again last week with existing home sales (6.12m) showing its biggest drop since 1989. Further downward pressure was placed on the Dollar on Friday when the first estimate for Q1 GDP (1.3%) showed its lowest reading since Q1 2003. Nevertheless, there was evidence that inflationary pressures continue to concern with PCE price index (3.4%) indicating that the FED are less likely to cut interest rates in the near term. This was confirmed by the release of the Beige Book where the FED indicated that they are still more concerned about inflation than growth. The main highlight this week is likely to be the employment report on Friday following a strong Non Farm Payroll figure in March.

Euro Data 

• Monday 10.00am EU Flash HICP Inflation for April previous 1.9%y/y
• Tuesday 9.00am EU Manufacturing PMI for April previous 55.4
• Wednesday 10.00am EU Unemployment for April previous 7.3%
• Thursday 10.00am EU PPI for March previous 2.9%y/y
• Friday 9.00am EU Retail Sales for March previous 0.3%m/m

The main highlight on last week’s calendar was the German IFO Survey (108.6) which showed business sentiment remains strong in Europe’s largest economy. This helped keep the Euro firm against both Sterling and the Dollar with EUR/USD posting an all time high on Friday afternoon at 1.3682. This week, attention turns to PPI and HICP inflation data for confirmation that the ECB are likely to raise rates again in the coming months.
 

Interest rate outlook