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UK Data
 

• Thursday 9.30am Mortgage Approvals for April previous 113.0k
• Thursday 9.30am Net Consumer Credit for April previous £0.9bn
• Thursday 11.00am CBI Distributive Trades Survey for May previous 44.0%bal
• Friday 8.00am Halifax House Prices for May previous 1.1%m/m
• Friday 9.30am CIPS Manufacturing PMI for May previous 53.9

The main highlight on last week’s calendar was the release of the Bank of England minutes from their meeting earlier this month revealing a 9-0 vote in favour of raising rates by 25bps to 5.50% However, there was talk of the possibility of a 50bps hike and consequently, the market has interpreted this as an increased chance of further tightening in the months ahead. This was further confirmed by Q1 GDP figures (0.7%q/q, 2.9%y/y) highlighting that the UK economy remains in good health. This week, the market will once again focus on the housing market and CBI Distributive Trades for an indication of activity on the high street.

US Data
 

• Tuesday 3.00pm Consumer Confidence for May previous 104.0
• Wednesday 7.00pm Fed release minutes from prior (9^th May) meeting
• Thursday 1.30pm GDP for Q1 previous 1.3%q/q
• Thursday 2.45pm Chicago PMI for May previously 52.9
• Friday 1.30pm Non Farm Payrolls for May previously 88k
• Friday 1.30pm Unemployment Rate for May previously 4.5%
• Friday 3.00pm ISM Manufacturing Survey for May previously 54.7
• Friday 3.00pm University of Michigan Sentiment Survey for May previously 88.7

Once again, the focus last week was on the US housing market where we saw conflicting data. New Home Sales rose 16.2% to 981k units, the sharpest climb in fourteen years, however helped by prices falling a record 11%. In contrast, existing home sales fell to 5.99m units against expectations of a rise to 6.14m units. This week, the main highlight will be the US employment report where the market will be looking for any signs that a tight labour market will prevent the Fed cutting interest rates in the months ahead. Also of interest will be the minutes from the Fed’s meeting earlier this month to gauge the Fed’s thinking on the US economy for the months ahead.

Euro Data     

• Wednesday 9.00am EU Retail PMI for May previous 54.6
• Thursday 10.00am Flash HICP Inflation for May previous 1.9%y/y
• Friday 9.00am EU Manufacturing PMI for May previous 55.4
• Friday 10.00am EU Unemployment for May previous 9.2%
• Friday 10.00am EU GDP for Q1 previous 3.1%y/y

Last week saw the recent trend of positive European data continue with the Trade Balance (€7.4bn) and Industrial New Orders (2.7%m/m) both exceeding expectations. This week, the market will focus on GDP and inflation data for confirmation that the ECB will raise rates in June.

Interest rate outlook