• Weekly briefings
• Archive

UK Data

• Wednesday 11.00am CBI Distributive Trades survey for June previous 31.0%bal
• Thursday 7.00am Nationwide House Prices for June previous 10.3%y/y
• Friday 9.30am Mortgage Approvals for May previous 107k
• Friday 9.30am Net Consumer Credit for May previous $0.5bn

The main highlight last week was the release of the Bank of England minutes from their meeting earlier in the month. They revealed a 5-4 vote in favour of leaving rates on hold with Governor Mervyn King and Deputy Governor John Gieve joining well renowned hawks Besley and Sentance in voting for a hike. The members voting to keep rates unchanged pointed to the need for measured rate rises given the high level of personal debt and said that there were already early signs of the housing market and consumer spending slowing. However, the hawks suggested that little had changed since the May inflation report which had signalled one more rate rise. Either way, Sterling gained against all the major currencies amid speculation of a hike in July. This week, the market will focus on housing data and retail sales for confirmation that the UK economy remains robust enough to cope with further monetary tightening.

US Data
 

• Monday 3.00pm Existing Home Sales for May previous 6.0m
• Tuesday 3.00pm Consumer confidence for June previous 108.0
• Tuesday 3.00pm New Home Sales for May previous 981k
• Wednesday 1.30pm Durable Goods Orders for May previous 0.8%m/m
• Thursday 7.15pm FOMC decide on interest rates
• Friday 1.30pm Core PCE Price Index for May previous 0.1
• Friday 1.30pm University of Michigan Sentiment Survey for June previous 83.7
• Friday 1.30pm Chicago PMI for June previous 61.7

Last week, the focus was once again on the US housing market where the data continued to paint a mixed picture. Housing starts fell to 1.474m (from 1.528m in April) however this was offset by building permits which rose to 1.501m (against expectations of 1.471m). The only other data of any note was the Philly Fed Survey (18.0) which far exceeded expectations showing its highest reading since April 2005. This week, the market will look towards existing and new home sales data for any signs of an improvement in the US housing market along with Q1 GDP for a health check on the economy.

Euro Data     

• Thursday 9.00am Retail PMI for June previous 48.4
• Thursday 10.00am EU Flash HICP Inflation for June previous 1.9%y/y

Last week saw both the German ZEW (20.3) and IFO (107.0) surveys disappoint, the latter being blamed on weak domestic demand, especially in the retail and construction sectors. Nevertheless, the institute refused to revise forecasts down suggesting that the recent economic upturn in Germany has not yet plateaued. Also of interest were industrial new orders which fell 0.4%m/m following a poor set of industrial production figures earlier in the month. This week, attention returns to inflation where the market will looking for confirmation that further tightening is still on the cards for the months ahead.   

Interest rate outlook