UK Data
- Monday 12.01am Rightmove House Prices for July previous 13.2%y/y ACTUAL 10.3%y/y
- Thursday 7.00am Nationwide House Prices for July previous 11.1%y/y
The focus last week was on inflation data where headline CPI fell to 2.4%y/y its lowest level since October 2006. Nevertheless, core CPI (the measure that excludes the volatile food and energy components) showed its highest reading since March 1997 (2.0%y/y) and the RPI was also up slightly at 4.4%y/y indicating that further tightening may still be required in the months ahead. Further uncertainty about UK monetary policy was seen on Wednesday when the minutes from the BoE’s last meeting revealed a tighter than expected 6-3 vote. Sterling finished the week stronger after the preliminary reading for Q2 GDP (0.8%q/q, 3.0%y/y) highlighted that the economy remains robust despite the recent rate hikes leaving scope for further tightening in the months ahead. This week, the focus will be on housing data where the market will be looking for any signs that five rate hikes in the past eleven months are starting to bite.
US Data
- Wednesday 3.00pm Existing Home Sales for June previous 5.99m
- Thursday 1.30pm Durable Goods Orders for June previous -2.4%m/m
- Thursday 3.00pm New Home Sales for June previous 915k
- Friday 1.30pm GDP for Q2 previous 0.7%q/q
- Friday 1.30pm Core PCE Price Index for Q2 previous 2.4%q/q
- Friday 3.00pm University of Michigan Sentiment Survey for July previous 85.3
The Dollar continued its downward trend last week despite a number of positive data releases. CPI (0.2%m/m) marginally exceeded expectations indicating that the Fed are unlikely to be able to cut rates anytime soon. Industrial production (+0.5%m/m) was also better than expected signifying that the economy remains relatively healthy. Nevertheless, fears that problems in the sub prime lending sector could spill over into the wider economy continue to weigh heavily on the US currency. This week, the market will focus on housing data for any signs that the sector is recovering from its recent slump. Also of interest will be GDP figures for a health check of the economy.
Euro Data
- Tuesday 10.00am EU Industrial New Orders for May previous -0.4%m/m
- Tuesday 10.00am EU Retail Trade for June previous -0.5%m/m
- Thursday 9.00am German IFO Survey for July previous 107.0
Last week saw EU inflation data come out in line with expectations at 1.9%y/y however the remaining highlights all disappointed. The EU trade balance showed a surplus of €1.7bn (against expectations of €2.1bm) and the ZEW Survey showed economic sentiment beginning to wane in Europe’s largest economy. This week, the market will focus on the IFO survey to gauge whether the recent downturn in economic sentiment is echoed in the business community.
Interest rate outlook
| Country |
Current rate |
Last change |
Date of change |
Next meeting |
| UK(MPC) |
5.75% |
+25bps |
05/07/07 |
2nd August |
| US (FED) |
5.25% |
+25bps |
29/06/06 |
7th August |
| EU (ECB) |
4.00% |
+25bps |
06/06/07 |
6th September |