UK Data
- Monday 12.01am Rightmove House Prices for November. Previous 10.4% y/y
- Tuesday 9.30am BSA Mortgage Approvals for October. Previous 4262k
- Tuesday 11.00am CBI Industrial Trends for November. Previous -6.0% bal
- Wednesday 9.30am BoE minutes from prior (7-8 Nov) MPC meeting
- Friday 9.30am BBA mortgage approvals for October. Previous 52.7k
- Friday 9.30am GDP for Q3. Previous 3.3% y/y
Last week saw Sterling under pressure across the board after a slew of poor data - the RICS housing Survey showed that house prices are falling at their fastest pace since July 2005 and Retail Sales came in at -0.1% m/m which is the lowest reading since January. In addition, the BoE Quarterly Inflation Report contained a warning from Mervyn King that the UK economic growth is to fall below trend in 2008 and signalled that Interest Rates are set to ease. This week, the market will be keen to see the minutes from the previous MPC meeting for a signal as to the timing of the next move and focus will also be placed on the House Price data released on Monday and Q3 GDP on Friday.
US Data
- Monday 6.00pm NAHB Builders survey for November. Previous 18 index
- Tuesday 1.30pm Building Permits for October. Previous 1226k
- Tuesday 1.30pm Housing Starts for October. Previous 1191k
- Tuesday 7.00pm Fed minutes from prior (30-31 Oct) FOMC meeting
- Wednesday 1.30pm Initial Claims for we 17/11/07
- Wednesday 3.00pm Leading Indicators for October. Previous 0.3% m/m
- Wednesday 3.00pm University of Michigan Sentiment for November. Previous 80.9 index
- Thursday Thanksgiving Holiday
Last week proved rather a mixed bag for the US. Pending Home Sales crept back into positive territory coming in at +0.2% after a dreadful -6.5% previously. However, PPI, Retail Sales and TICS data were all weak and are likely to keep the USD on the back foot as we head towards December. A good deal of keenly awaited data is due out this week with the early focus on the all important housing sector and the publication of the Fed minutes form the last meeting out on Tuesday. The Univ of Michigan Sentiment survey on Wednesday will also be of interest and is the final release ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday.
EURO Data
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Thursday 9.00am Current account for September. Previous €3.8 bn
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Thursday 10.00am EU Industrial New Orders for September. Previous 0.3% m/m
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Friday 9.00am Flash Manufacturing PMI for November. Previous 51.5 index
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Friday 9.00am Flash Services PMI for November. Previous 55.6 index
Last week the German ZEW survey came out at -32.5 – the lowest reading since July 2004 and shows how the strong Euro and high oil prices is affecting exports and dampening business sentiment. However, inflation remains at a robust 2.6% and the expectation of a rate hike in the EU early in 2008 remain high. With largely second tier data due out this week, the market is likely to focus on Industrial New Orders on Tuesday for an indication as to how the economy is coping with such a strong Euro.
Interest rate outlook
| Country |
Current rate |
Last change |
Date of change |
Next meeting |
| UK (MPC) |
5.75% |
+25bps |
05/07/07 |
6th December |
| US (FED) |
4.50% |
-25bps |
31/10/07 |
11th December |
| EU (ECB) |
4.00% |
+25bps |
06/06/07 |
6th December |