UK Data
- Monday 0.01am Rightmove House Prices previous 13.2% y/y
- Tuesday 9.30am RPI for June previous 4.3% y/y
- Tuesday 9.30am CPI for June previous 2.5% y/y
- Wednesday 9.30am Average Earnings for May previous 4.0% y/y
- Wednesday 9.30am BoE release minutes from last meeting.
- Thursday 9.30am Retail Sales for June previous 0.4% m/m
- Friday 9.30am Preliminary Q2 GDP previous 0.7% q/q
Last week saw £ hit a new 26 year high against the $ on worries that problems in the sub prime mortgage sector may spill over into the wider US economy. Data releases had very little impact as the negative $ sentiment was the driving force. A big data week for the UK, with some key releases, but most attention will be on the BoE minutes release on Wednesday for their June meeting where they raised rates by 25bp. The closeness of the vote will be of interest and the markets will scrutinise the minutes for any clues about timing and magnitude of future interest rate rises.
US Data
- Tuesday 1.30pm PPI for June previous 0.9% m/m
- Tuesday 2.15pm Industrial Production for June previously unchanged
- Wednesday 1.30pm Housing Starts for June previous 1474k
- Wednesday 1.30pm CPI for June previous 0.7% m/m
- Wednesday & Thursday From 3.00pm Fed Chairman’s bi-annual testimony to both US Houses
- Thursday 7.00pm Fed Reserve release minutes from previous meeting
Retail sales last Friday were much worse than expected, but the story that dominated the markets was concern about the sub prime mortgage sector. This led to a great deal of negative sentiment for the $, which went to record an all time low against the Euro above 1.38 on Friday afternoon. The inflation data this week is very important, but so is the Fed Chairman’s testimony on monetary policy to the two US Houses and the release of minutes from the Fed meeting in June. Both events will be key determinants for US interest rate expectations going forward.
Euro Data
-
Monday 10.00am EU HICP for June previous 1.9% y/y
-
Tuesday 10.00am EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey Index for July previously 19
-
Wednesday 10.00am EU Trade Balance for May previous €1.8bn
-
Thursday 1.30pm ECB Governing Council non-rate setting meeting.
Q1 Final GDP numbers were revised up to 3.1%, though June’s Industrial Production data did disappoint slightly. This week should confirm EU inflation at a steady 1.9% y/y, but expectations remain for at least one more rate rise by the ECB. Key data release this week will be the ZEW survey which will give indication of up to date conditions and future economic expectations.
Interest rate outlook
| Country |
Current rate |
Last change |
Date of change |
Next meeting |
| UK(MPC) |
5.75% |
+25bps |
05/07/07 |
2nd August |
| US (FED) |
5.25% |
+25bps |
29/06/06 |
7th August |
| EU (ECB) |
4.00% |
+25bps |
06/06/07 |
6th September |