• Weekly briefings
• Archive

UK Data 

• Monday 9.30am PPI – Input for October. Previous 6.4% y/y
• Monday 9.30am PPI – Output for October. Previous 2.7% y/y
• Tuesday 12.01am RICS Housing Survey for October. Previous -14.6 3m % bal
• Tuesday 9.30am CPI for October. Previous 1.8% y/y
• Wednesday 9.30am Average Earnings for September. Previous 3.7 3m avg
• Wednesday 10.30am BoE Quarterly Inflation Report.
• Thursday 9.30am Retail Sales for October. Previous 6.3% y/y

Last week saw a number of releases from the UK but the main focus of attention was the BoE interest rate decision. In the event the MPC, as widely expected, kept rates on hold and now the market will wait for the publication of the minutes on November 21^st for a signal as to the timing of the next move. Looking forward to another busy week ahead, the key focus is likely to come on Wednesday with the publication of the Quarterly Inflation Report although both the RICS Housing Survey and Average Earnings are also likely to come under some scrutiny.

US Data

• Monday Veterans Day Holiday
• Tuesday 8.00pm Pending Home Sales for September. Previous -6.5% m/m
• Wednesday 1.30pm PPI for October. Previous 1.1% m/m
• Wednesday 1.30pm Retail Sales for October. Previous 0.6% m/m
• Wednesday 3.00pm Business Inventories for September. Previous 0.1% m/m.
• Friday 2.00pm TICS data for September. Previous -$69.3bn
• Friday 2.15pm Capacity utilisation for October. Previous 82.1%
• Friday 2.15pm Industrial Production for October. Previous 0.1% m/m

Mostly second tier data last week, however the Trade Balance on Friday showed a glimmer of good news for the beleaguered US economy. The deficit came in a better than expected -$56.4bn perhaps indicating that the recent weakness of the dollar is helping exports. This week, PPI and Retail Sales on Wednesday will be the main focus of market attention. 

EURO Data 

• Tuesday 10.00am Industrial production for September. Previous 1.2% m/m
• Tuesday 10.00am German ZEW Survey for November. Previous -19.0 index
• Wednesday 10.00am GDP for Q3. Previous 2.5% y/y
• Thursday 10.00am HICP for October. Previous 2.6% y/y
• Friday 10.00am EU Trade Balance for September. Previous €1.3bn

As with the UK, the main focus last week was the interest rate decision on Thursday. In the event, the ECB surprised nobody by keeping rates on hold. During the following press conference, Trichet signaled the need to keep inflation expectations firmly anchored but stopped short of signaling a rate hike in favour of a “wait and see” approach. This week, the ZEW survey on Tuesday will provide an idea of business sentiment in Germany and Wednesday’s GDP figures will give the market an idea of the overall health of the EU economy.

Interest rate outlook