UK Data
- Monday Bank Holiday – Easter Monday
- Wednesday 12.01am RICS housing Survey for March previous 24.0 3m % bal
- Thursday 9.30am World Trade balance for February previous -£6.2bn
The highlight last week was the interest rate decision from the Bank of England where the MPC decided to leave interest rates on hold at 5.25%. The bias for interest rates still remains hawkish with a strong housing market and buoyant consumer spending on the High Street; however GBP suffered somewhat as the market now has to digest another one month of data before the next decision. The highlight for this week is the trade data to see whether there is any further deterioration in the deficit that the UK has with the rest of the world.
US Data
- Thursday 1.30pm Import Prices for March previous +0.2% m/m
- Thursday 7.00pm Fed to release minutes from 20/21st March meeting
- Friday 1.30pm PPI ex food and energy for March previous +0.4% m/m
- Friday 1.30pm Trade balance for February previous -59.1 bn USD
- Friday 3.00pm University of Michigan consumer sentiment for April previous 88.4
The highlight last week was on Good Friday with the release of the US employment report for March. This was a strong report with 180k jobs created and February’s number revised higher from 97k to 113k.This was a lot stronger than the consensus forecast and supplementary to this the unemployment rate came in at 4.4%. The highlight for this week will be the release of the minutes from when the Fed met on 20/21st March. It was here that they amended their outlook on interest rates to a more neutral stance, however it must be reiterated that the level of inflation remains the Fed’s primary concern. The outlook for the US economy is becoming more and more of an interesting topic with the interest rate bears pointing to the slowdown in the US housing market and evidence of a slowdown in the service sector, whereas the interest rate bulls must take comfort from a strong employment report and inflationary concerns.
Euro Data
- Thursday 12.45pm ECB Interest Rate Announcement
- Thursday 10.00am GDP final forecast for Q4 previous 3.3% y/y
- Friday 10.00am Industrial Production for February previous -0.2% m/m
The highlight for this week will be the interest rate decision from the ECB where it is widely expected for them to leave interest rates on hold for the time being; however a rise in June still looks set. Also some attention will be focused on the strength of the EUR especially if it continues to rally not just against the US dollar towards previous highs at 1.3665 but also against the Japanese yen towards 160. Some strong EUR comments can be expected from the Europeans.
Interest rate outlook
| Country |
Current rate |
Last change |
Date of change |
Next meeting |
| UK(MPC) |
5.25% |
+25bps |
11/01/07 |
10th May |
| US (FED) |
5.25% |
+25bps |
29/06/06 |
9th May |
| EU (ECB) |
3.75% |
+25bps |
08/03/07 |
12th Apr |