UK Data
- Monday 9.30am CIPS Services PMI for January previous 60.6
- Wednesday 9.30am Manufacturing Production for December previous 0.3%m/m
- Wednesday 9.30am Industrial Production for December previous 0.5%m/m
- Thursday 12.00pm BoE Interest Rate Decision
- Friday 9.30am Trade Balance for December previous -£7.2bn
Last week saw the first signs that the UK housing market may be slowing in the wake of the recent rate hikes when mortgage approvals (113k) showed its lowest reading in almost a year. However, the same can not be said for the retail sector where the CBI distributive trades survey (+30%bal) rose at its fastest pace for two years. This week, the focus will be on the Bank of England rate decision where the market expects rates to be left on hold. A survey conducted by Reuters indicated an outside chance of a hike with 30% of economists polled expecting a hike.
US Data
- Monday 3.00pm ISM Non Manufacturing Survey for January previous 57.1
The FOMC kept interest rates on hold at 5.25% when they met last week however the key was in the accompanying statement where Bernanke was far more upbeat about economic growth. This positive outlook was confirmed by Q4 GDP (3.5%q/q) which far exceeded expectations. January’s employment report failed to live up to expectations showing only 111k jobs created outside the agricultural sector however there were upward revisions for previous months. The sole highlight on this week’s calendar is the ISM Non Manufacturing Survey where the market will looking for signs that the services sector remains robust in the wake of a disappointing manufacturing survey last week.
Euro zone Data
- Monday 9.00am EU Services PMI for January previous 57.2
- Tuesday 10.00am EU Retail Trade for December previous 0.5%m/m
- Thursday 12.45 ECB Interest Rate Announcement (followed by news conference at 1.30pm)
The focus last week was on Eurozone inflation data where both HICP (1.9%y/y) and PPI (4.1%y/y) disappointed the hawks. Whilst a rate hike is still expected from the ECB in March, the outlook beyond there is now uncertain with many anticipating rates to remain on hold during the remainder of 2007. This week’s main highlight will be the ECB interest rate announcement where rates are expected to remain on hold at 3.50% however the market will pay close attention to Trichet’s accompanying statement for confirmation of a March hike.
Interest rate outlook
| Country |
Current rate |
Last change |
Date of change |
Next meeting |
| UK(MPC) |
5.25% |
+25bps |
11/01/07 |
8th Feb |
| US (FED) |
5.25% |
+25bps |
29/06/06 |
21st Mar |
| EU (ECB) |
3.50% |
+25bps |
07/12/06 |
8th Feb |